Sunday, February 28, 2010

Monday's Rain Event

Here is a little bit on tomorrow's system...

A gulf low will be moving to our southeast providing a noticeable amount of precipitation. I'm thinking we could easily receive near an inch within the whole system.

Tomorrow will start partly to mostly cloudy and progressing into overcast conditions by midday. Showers will likely start in the afternoon, but the heavier rain will come later in the evening. Instability looks to be low so I wouldn't expect to see any severe weather.

Between 3am and 6am Tuesday we have the potential to see flurries, but not accumulation is expected. Any frozen precipitation should melt significantly in the lower 1,000ft of the atmosphere. The bigger story with this system will be the rain on Monday evening and the cooler temperatures.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Beginning of March

Our temperature has averaged below normal for the month of February. So when will we finally see a glimpse into warmer temperatures?

Long range models are continually predicting shades of warmer days ahead. The first week of March will be similar to the past few weeks, but the second week of March should see a change. the cold arctic air will retreat North of the Dixie line and allow us to finally see consecutive days in the upper 60's and possibly 70's. A more typical spring-time weather pattern will become active in relative form.

Near March 8/9 a noticeable mid-latitude cyclone will transverse across the central portion of the country, and this might be a potential severe weather event for the Mississippi River Valley. The variables of warm temps and more moisture will be a welcome characteristic to many.

Discussion on Tonight and Monday

Active weather report tonight so let's get moving.

Tonight a well circulating Low Pressure system is running through the lower mississippi river valley. Instability is very low with the progression of the system, but we could still have the occassional rumble of thunder along the way. The movement of the low is east with a southerly component. This will actually keep us from getting heavy amounts of rain, but I can still expect near 0.50" for the region. Folks along the coast could see closer to an inch.

This system will clear quickly going into Saturday, and allow Sunday for plenty of sunshine along an upper level ridge. A ridge that will be sharp and brief.

Our next trough (low) will begin to influence our weather on Monday. The ridge will be kicked east by a progressing upper level low and surface low along the northern gulf. Typically, a low along the gulf delivers a shot of snow and wintry mix in Mississippi, but we need to be careful with this idea. Computer models are probably going to perform poorly since snow on March 1 is abnormal, and most are calling for all rain on Monday. Will this be all rain or end with wintry mix/snow? At this point, I believe we could find snowfall without accumulation late Monday night. Best chance of any accumulation should be found farther Norther near central MS.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Active Weather Pattern Ahead

The weather center is busy to say the least. No, hurricane season is still a few months away, but the weather pattern is active and coming our way. Let's break this down with each possible system moving through.

1) The first cold front is moving through today. This will squeeze out the moisture left in the air after Sunday night's system. Expect showers after 6pm and lasting through Wednesday morning. After midnight we might see the rain mix with flurries, but this isn't going to be a big issue. No accumulation will be expected and road temperature will be above freezing all night. After the cold front pushes through, Wednesday will be a cool day with highs only near 50.

2) A low pressure system will push directly through Mississippi on Friday afternoon. Rain amounts are a little uncertain at this time, but some folks think latest model runs are a little too aggressive with bucket totals. The rain/snow line will be trailing the surface Low and give a second potential for flurries close to midnight Friday night. Once again, snow is not worthy of discussing.

Next two systems could change quite a bit, but here is what could happen in the long range....
3) Early Monday morning another shortwave will develop along the northern Gulf Coast. And, of course, we will see another chance of rain Monday morning. As of now, this event has the makings of all rain.

4) Two weeks from today models are trying to show a strong mid-lattitude cyclone driving through the mid-mississippi river valley. This event typically produces the threat for severe weather in our area.

Well there is the four system setup. Many things will change as our atmosphere evolves before and after each system, but the pattern is definitely active in our near future. As the Spring equinox nears and the sun angle continues to increase any snow talk will be out the door. All discussion will then be keeping an eye on cyclones developing for severe weather potential going into March and April. Don't worry, we aren't here to overhype any situation, but we will let you know of any updates you should know.

Thanks for following

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Latest Update on Conditions

Storms in Pine Belt now...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Columbia, Sumrall, and Laurel in a Flash Flood Warning here soon. A long line of storms are training together to cause a probable flash flooding event for this corridor between Columbia and Laurel.

Instability is lower in SE MS and conditions are slightly shy of notable hail parameters. You might still be able to find pea size hail embedded in the strong cells.

Lightning is also another issue. I haven't heard of any lightning strikes at this time. There's just a lot of cloud-to-cloud right now.

Thunderstorms rolling through

Watching some storms roll across South Mississippi tonight. Main threat tonight involves small to moderate size hail embedded in isolated cells. Many folks have already reported an abundance of lightning with thunderstorms in SW MS this evening.

After 9pm areas of the Pine Belt will begin seeing the thunderstorms, but most folks won't see much until after 10pm.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Next Two Systems

I'm titling my forecast "Two Events" because we have two different opportunities to see rain in the next four days.

The first rain event will come tomorrow and into tomorrow night. A low pressure system will push through the middle mississippi river valley. We could see light showers in the area near midday but light to moderate showers late in the evening. Instability isn't enough to be noted as a severe weather day, but some isolated spots along and south of hwy 98 could see small hail embedded in thunderstorms.

The second event will take place late Tuesday night. This will be a second cold front that will deliver a real punch of cold air and remove any moisture leftover from Sunday's front. As of now, light showers will be found in the Pine Belt, but I think this will change a little in the next forecast period.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

NOAA Changes Hurricane Scale

NOAA National Weather Service will use a new hurricane scale in 2010 called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is an adjustment from the many years of using the Saffir-Simpson scale. The new title includes "wind scale" because it is now the main factor in distinguishing hurricanes. Storm surge and flooding effects are not longer connected to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Here is a quote from the latest NOAA release...
"The decision to implement the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale was based, in part, on an assessment of the responses received during a 2009 public comment period. The descriptions of wind impacts in the new scale were updated with assistance from highly respected wind scientists from academia and industry."

I believe this will be a good change for distinguishing the characteristics of different hurricanes. Many in Mississippi remember Katrina was only considered a Category 3 at landfall, but the coastline was majorly effected by flooding because the storm was very large.

The NOAA statement also says storm surge details will continue to be listed in hurricane advisories from the National Hurricane Center.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Why the snow talk?

A strong cold front will push through in the next few hours and produce moderate rainfall. This rain event will NOT be packing any severe weather, but a rumble of thunder might be heard briefly. As the cold front moves through near midnight any leftover precipitation will easily transition into snow flurries. Answering how much precipitation will be around behind the cold front is still difficult to determine. There does appear to be a drying trend behind the cold front which will hinder any precipitation after midnight.

In the end...I don't expect any accumulation along highway 98. Our viewers near Bay Springs and Waynesboro have the best shot of seeing the white stuff (the northern viewing area). This is not a big snow event worth worrying about.

Most of us should be more concerned about the cold Monday. High temps will be in the lower 40's but the wind will making for uncomfortable conditions.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Light Rain then Cold

After another cold night in the 20's what will happen next?

Sunday will be a day with plenty of variety. We will start with mostly sunny conditions and cool. By midday skies will slowly become progressively cloudy but the temperature should reach the mid 50's. Then Sunday evening will experience a cold front producing minimal amounts of precipitation. I think totals will be around 0.10"-0.20" for the region. But after midnight the rain could change to snow flurries. No accumulation is expected.

The cold front pushes through and will swing a punch of cold air into the Pine Belt. Monday will probably be an uncomfortable day for most with temps barely reaching the 40's and winds gusting to 20mph.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Snow ending this afternoon

Our snow event will gradually end from the west this afternoon. This will be followed by decreasing clouds but very cold temps with lows expected to be in the mid 20s. It is very important that travel be limited today and especially tonight as there is alot of slush and snow on the roads and over passes. Much better weather is on tap for Saturday with mostly sunny skies and chilly temps with highs in the upper 40s. Rex

Winter Storm Update (via NWS)

...WINTER STORM UPDATE...  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA...AND ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS...WITH ICY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SLUSHY ROADS. UNTIL THE SNOW DIMINISHES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING...AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE.  AT 9 AM...THE OFFICIAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON IS 3.5 INCHES.  2.9 INCHES OF THIS HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS THE 13TH LARGEST CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL IN JACKSON HISTORY...AND IS THE THIRD LARGEST SINGLE DAY FEBRUARY SNOWFALL ON RECORD. THE EVENT TOTAL OF 3.5 INCHES IS THE 12TH LARGEST SNOWFALL EVENT ON RECORD IN JACKSON.  OTHER SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS AS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS...THE PUBLIC...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...COOP AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING. ALL OF THESE AMOUNTS WERE AS OF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. SNOW WAS STILL FALLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA... SO THESE TOTALS WILL INCREASE.  NATCHEZ...ADAMS COUNTY...6 INCHES VICKSBURG...WARREN COUNTY...5.5 INCHES 2 MI N PRENTISS...JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY...4.5 INCHES RAYMOND...HINDS COUNTY...4.5 INCHES MONTICELLO...LAWRENCE COUNTY...4 INCHES COLLINS...COVINGTON COUNTY...4 INCHES RIDGELAND...MADISON COUNTY...4 INCHES LAUREL...JONES COUNTY...4 INCHES OVETT...JONES COUNTY...4 INCHES DECATUR...NEWTON COUNTY...4 INCHES MCCALL CREEK...FRANKLIN COUNTY...4 INCHES FOREST...SCOTT COUNTY...3.5 INCHES GRAND GULF PARK...CLAIBORNE COUNTY...3.5 INCHES DOWNTOWN JACKSON...HINDS COUNTY...3.2 INCHES HOUSE...NESHOBA COUNTY...3 INCHES SUMRALL...LAMAR COUNTY...3 INCHES PELAHATCHIE...RANKIN COUNTY...3 INCHES TAYLORSVILLE...SMITH COUNTY...3 INCHES QUITMAN...CLARKE COUNTY...3 INCHES VALLEY PARK...ISSAQUENA COUNTY...2 INCHES PHILADELPHIA...NESHOBA COUNTY...1.7 INCHES WILMOT...ASHLEY COUNTY...1 INCH  THE NWS THANKS EVERYONE FOR REPORTING THEIR SNOW TOTALS...AND ASKS THAT REPORTS CONTINUE TO BE SUBMITTED. YOU CAN SUBMIT STORM REPORTS FROM THE FRONT PAGE OF OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. 

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Big Snow Events in Pine Belt History

Not much has changed going into the forecast for the snow event in the South Mississippi tonight and into tomorrow. The biggest thing that might surprise us is the amount of snow in the area. Our friends at the National Weather Service in Jackson have update things late this morning to indicate the possibility of seeing nearly 5"-9" through McComb, Columbia, and Hattiesburg. This means isolated locations along the Hwy 98 corridor could see nearly 9"! Wow, this is an incredible total to forecast for South Mississippi, but the details are lining up for a textbook deep south snow event.

With the potential high snow totals here in South Mississippi, we've been looking into the past big snowfalls in our viewing area. Unfortanely the biggest hassle is our data history. Our observation plot at Bobby L. Chain started recording data in 2000 (so we've been told). Here are the details on the big three events we've noticed...

1) March 1993: At the station we have written down that our eastern viewing area (probably east of I-59) received 3"-8". This came in the form of thundersnow.

2) December 30, 1963: National Weather Service says Meridian received 16" of snow, and many here at the station remember between 8"-12" in the Pine Belt. Rex Thompson remembers Columbia receiving near a foot.

3) 1894: National Weather Service scratched around and helped us find this hidden event over a century ago. They have 10.2" here in the area.

With these three points we can conclude the magnitude of this potential snow event. Some isolated areas in the region could see 7"+ and this could become a fourth big event to remember in South Mississippi.

Take care and be safe!

Weather Update !!!

National Weather Service in Jackson now predicting snow accumulations of 5-9 INCHES!!! Be prepared for possible power outages as the snow is expected to be heavy and wet and that could bring down tree limbs and power lines. Stay with us on WDAM-TV and wdam.com for the latest on this winter storm. Rex

Latest details on Snow event (Thursday AM)

*Winter Storm Warning for most of the viewing area*

Before I discuss the details...

In the words of meteorologist James Spann, "There will be surprises. Some will be delighted and others severely disappointed by the amount of snow they see."

With that said let's move on...

Our atmosphere is very cold at this point. Morning sounding in Jackson showed an atmosphere basically all below freezing, but Slidell was only a little above freezing upto about 1300 feet. Our sounding will be very important as precipitation nears because anything above freezing will melt the snow pellet on it's way down to the surface. This is why I am thinking we will have a light rain at first this afternoon/evening before we transition into snow after 9pm tonight. Snow precipitation will last into Friday morning and end after midday.

Now snow accumulation is a difficult story since this a rare event in South Mississippi. Computer model agreement hasn't changed much since last night. I agree the most plausible amounts of high snow fall (3"-5") in our viewing area exist along highway 98 and north, but I also think McComb could be considered a hot spot with totals 6"+ (Just outside of viewing area). This is where you should "expect some surprises." We should all realize these forecast numbers are nearly unthinkable for the Pine Belt but it's all plausible. Snow to liquid ratio will be near 6 to 1. Which means an expected 0.6" of liquid precipitation in Hattiesburg will equal about 3.6" of snow.

Road conditions are also another concern. I believe major roads and highways will be relatively fine during this period. These roads might be questionable early Friday morning, but traffic will help melt anything frozen. Smaller and less populated roads will need to be watched during this time. A bigger risk might be Friday night. Friday's high temperature will only be a few degrees above freezing, and any leftover ice or precipitation will be frozen Friday night.

Extra thoughts...
Mobile could also have 1-2" of accumulation.
-Favorite vacation spot Destin, FL, could see snow. Who would love to see snow pics sent in from Destin?
-Overall, this could turn out to be a snow storm we haven't experienced in several years...might we be calling this the snow storm of the decade for the south?

Winter Storm Warning !!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Jackson has now placed the entire WDAM viewing area under a Winter Storm Warning starting at 6:00 PM this evening and lasting until 2:00 PM Friday. The heaviest snow is currently forecasted to fall between the Hwy 84 and 98 corridors. Accumulations of 5-8 inches are expected with some areas possibly getting a little less and some a little more. The heaviest snow should begin in the area around 9 or 10 tonight and stay heavy through mid Friday morning. Stay tuned to WDAM-TV and to wdam.com for the latest on this developing situation. Rex

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Potential snow and how we'll cover it...

Potential Snow Update
As of 9:00pm Wednesday the entire Pine Belt was queued up for a winter storm watch, from Thursday evening until Friday afternoon. Essentially this means that there's potential for significant snow accumulation which may impact travel. The Jackson, MS national weather service office will reexamine the need for a winter storm warning at approximately 4:00am Thursday.

The ingredients appear to be on the counter when it comes to making snow.
  • High pressure to the north has helped establish some cold air.
  • There's a strong moist jets stream just to our west that's feed moisture this way.
  • Plus we have an area of low pressure which should deepen around southeast Texas overnight and into tomorrow.
Ultimately, the ripe low will work it's way our direction Thursday.

If everything stays on track, we will likely see light rain, light sleet, and light snow during the late afternoon Thursday. During the late evening hours we may see the snow pick up in intensity. Worst case scenario, we may have heavy snow overnight, resulting in 2-6 inches of snow in parts of the WDAM viewing area.

Friday afternoon all the significant snowfall should be over. Temps may briefly rise above freezing during the day which will allow for a little melting, but hazardous road conditions may be an issue Friday night as well.


Thursday/Friday night coverage
Here in the Seven on Your Side weather office, we will be monitoring the storm overnight. Assuming the snow comes to fruition, we'll be doing live weather updates on air at approximately the top of every hour, starting just after 9:00pm. The main goal will be to quickly show you a radar and fill you in on the latest road conditions in the Pine Belt. These cut-ins will happen through out the night, so feel free to stay up late with us.

Cancellations
If/when we receive information on school or business cancellations in the Pine Belt we will pass them on to you as soon as we get them. Public and private K-12 schools that elect to close will scroll on our screen, be listed on our website, and will be announced in our newscast. You will be able to find all other closed establishments listed on our website only.

36 Hours away from Snow Event

I detailed some numbers this morning on how the whole snow forecast is evolving. We have more confidence in some details but we still have many question marks.

1) One computer model is faster with precipitation but lower on precipitation total.
2) Another computer model is slow with precipitation but higher on precipitation total.
See the issue?
3) Although, both of the models agree on the location of the snow.

-Expanding the forecast:
Many agree a heavy snow forecast in South Mississippi is against climatology. History shows highest snow totals should be expected in Central Mississippi and into Northern/Central Alabama.

What are my thoughts?
I am believing our atmospheric sounding will trend barely at and below freezing late Thursday night and throughout the day on Friday. This means the falling precipitation will not be able to melt completely. I expect the precipitation to begin falling late in the evening on Thursday and ending after midday Friday. Accumulation should begin on vegetation near midnight, but any collection on the roadways is difficult to determine. Though...I believe by daybreak Friday morning the ground will be cold enough to begin accumulating on the road.

Snow totals in our viewing area could be widespread. Anywhere from light snow to 5" inches can be expected. At this point, highest totals should be found along and north of highway 98. Pearl River, Stone, and George counties should only see a light snow with mostly rain.

Thoughts on schools?
I realize we normally need an inch or two of snow to cancel schools in this area. So I wouldn't be surprised to see most school systems in our viewing area leaning towards canceling classes on Friday, but our southern counties (Pearl River, Stone, George) school systems should wait until tomorrow to make any thoughts because they should see mostly rain with a light snow mix.

Winter Storm Possible Thursday Night-Friday

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our area from late Thursday into Friday. 2-6 in accumulations are possible. It all depends on the exact track of the storm. This is a developing situation and forecast changes are likely. Keep tuned to WDAM-TV and to WDAM.com for the latest information. At this time it appears heavy snow will break out Thursday night and possibly last well into Friday morning before tapering off. Again the total amounts depend highly on the exact track of the storm. Rex

Monday, February 8, 2010

Special Weather Statement issued

The threat of snow late Thursday into Friday is real. So much so, that the National Weather Service office out of Jackson Mississippi issued a Special Weather Statement that includes much of the WDAM viewing area. NWS text below.....

WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..

IT IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL AFFECT A LARGE PART OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD THE LOW TRACK FARTHER
NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS AWAY...AND UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS PROBABLE
THAT MOST OF THE AREA COULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH SOME PARTS
OF THE AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES. THE AREA
MOST VULNERABLE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. RESIDENTS AND PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION
SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SNOW?????

A snow event may unfold here in the Pine Belt beginning late Thursday and lasting into Friday. This is a developing weather situation and the forecast will be fine tuned as we get closer the event. Stay Tuned !!!!!! Rex

Already talking snow?

Last night was a busy night for me so it was difficult to focus on weather with sports anchoring responsibilities and web site duties. So here is your late Sunday Discussion for the week's forecast in point format.

1) A round of rain will come in late tonight and into early Tuesday morning. We could see about an inch as the cold front passes through after midnight.

2) The next system will be another "Gulf Low" type of scenario, which means be aware of the snow word. Look at this model ( http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DGX ). GFS already thinks New Augusta will see 4 inches with Hattiesburg/Laurel getting about 3. It's way too early to talk totals because I do expect this to change a lot. This situation appears to have our atmospheric sounding very close to being too warm for snow, but this will be a focus in our forecast this week.

3) Overall this week is a cool forecast as we will be below our normal high temperature.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Colder than normal and rainy

Today's weather story is difficult to be defined with one point. Our extended forecast involves a cycle of rain then partly cloudy conditions. But the overall weather pattern can probably be defined as "colder than normal" since we have rarely seen the 70 degree mark this year. Last year we had several days easily in the 60's and 70's, but we have been barely running into the upper 60's. Not much will be changing either. Our forecast the next two weeks is trending in the same "below average" direction with more rain to talk about.

Our rain chances will come around this week within two systems. The first system will create rain late Monday night and into early Tuesday morning. Then the second system follows on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Groundhog Day

Happy Groundhog Day!

After a cold start in January, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow to signify 6 more weeks of winter. While this is all folklore carried on from European tradition, but how do you feel about the thought of 6 more weeks of winter? In essence, if you don't like the cold and chilly weather in the future, blame the groundhog and not the weatherman.

I do relatively agree with Phil's outcome, but I think we can say temps will potentially stay slightly below normal. This is reflected in our immediate 7Day forecast and typical El Nino trends.

Our big focus this week is on Thursday's rain event. A lower level Low pressure system will shift through the state on Thursday trailed by the upper level low. This has the opportunity to dump 1" to 2" in the area.