Monday, January 26, 2009

Freezing Rain in North MS but Rain for Pine Belt

Forecast Models have finally come together on a story I was studying yesterday. Model Consensus has finally shown a progressive cold front running through the country for the short-range forecast. Currently, South Mississippi is in a warm sector before the progressing cold front. Tomorrow afternoon we could easily see temps in the lower 70's, but the cold front will begin to impact North Mississippi on Tuesday night with some mixed precip into Wednesday morning. Tuesday we should also see a big temperature gradient with freezing temps in Southaven but 70's in Jackson and Hatt/Laurel.

The cold front will move through the Pine Belt by midday on Wednesday and deliver most of the needed rainfall during the day on Wednesday. Some morning travel on Wednesday could be hindered by rain, but I expect a majority of the rain to trail into midday. After the front progresses through I expect afternoon temps to fall into the 50's, and the mild 50's temps could easily last through the rest of our 7day forecast.

Long term: 8-10 day models show a slight warming in our forecast, but the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, which help allow cold air to flow into the South and East U.S., become below neutral as we start February. Actually the AO is trending stronger negative for a greater chance of cold air filtering into the south. Although I must be mindful of how far south we are in relation to the rest of the country, and I often notice cold air into the Eastern Corridor of the country but not falling into South Mississippi. Take it or leave it....that is my tid bit on our long range forecast. Enjoy your week! -Tanner Cade

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