Severe Tuesday

Tis the season...even though we are in the winter month of January, we still must always keep track of severe weather. Here in Mississippi we experience a lot of severe activity in Jan, Feb, and Mar. Last year Mississippi had about 3 major events in the month of January, and February brought a very serious February 5th outbreak in the South. So now we must talk about this upcoming Tuesday. NWS' Storm Prediction Center has the Pine Belt in a Slight Chance for severe weather. This event is setup by a major trough sweeping through the country and pulling in plenty of moisture and severe dynamics. Different Severe Indices will be on the moderate to high range for Tuesday afternoon and night, but I am concerned about the interaction between tonight's stationary boundary and Tuesday's cold front movement. For Tuesday, upper-level energy will most likely be available, but my thoughts wonder how surface impact of the previous system will hinder the initiation of large-scale severe activity. Lapse Rates for rapidly rising air parcels seems to be on the low side, but I will still expect Tuesday afternoon and evening to package in severe thunderstorms with wind and hail. The threat of a tornado is a concern, but please stay tuned to this blog and our weathercast for more updates leading into Tuesday. -Tanner Cade