Friday, July 10, 2009

Transitioning into El Nino

Temps in our 7Day will hover around the mid-90's which is a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Rain chances still seem slim going into next week with a strong ridge maintaining stable conditions for the SW U.S. including here in South Mississippi.

Discussion have progressed in the last few weeks about our weather pattern transitioning into an El Nino pattern, but what would this mean for us here in the Pine Belt? Well check out my blog I wrote at the end of June...
"Global trends like El Nino and La Nina are important oscillations to follow for long-term forecasting, and the Pacific water temperature is a major variable in determining these phases. For nearly the whole past year we have been in a neutral phase, but the last few months have showed us a trend. The El Nino Southern Oscillation neutral phase is transition into an El Nino phase in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Since May 2009 the sea surface temperature anomalies have increased across the equatorial Pacific. Increasing anomalies refers to warming ocean water. What would an El Nino pattern mean for us? The effects of El Nino during June-August include an increase in tropical activity in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. The transition into an El Nino trend may be an added reason why the long-term tropical forecast seems relatively quiet in the Gulf, but we are technically still in a "neutral" phase until El Nino anomalies have been maintained for atleast 3 months. All in all, it's another two cents to put into the tropical outlook."
Want to talk more about this? Feel free to email me at

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