Friday, July 31, 2009

More showers in the forecast !

We have a 90% chance for showers and thunderstorms today. I think most of the activity will oocur during the afternoon when we have maximum heating. Todays highs will be in the upper 80s. A very slight chance for a shower tonight-30% early-with lows in the lower 70s expected. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. I think that those showers will be mainly the afternoon variety as well. For Sunday, rain chances will be much less but it will be warmer with highs in the lower 90s. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Humid weather to continue !

Expect humid conditions today with highs in the low 90s with a chance for mainly an afternoon or early evening shower or thunderstorm. Chance for rain is 40%. Muggy overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s with a slight chance for a shower. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday with highs around 90. Chance of rain is 70%. For the weekend, expect a chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the 70s. Chance of rain on Saturday is 50% and 40% on Sunday. Rex

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

More showers expected !

More showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast through at least Friday and possibly into the weekend. This is great news for us though because we are still a little behind on our rainfall amounts. Don't expect too much in the way of a lot of sunshine over the next few day days either. The tropics remain quiet! Rex

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Much needed rain expected for the rest of the week !

We have a 90% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms especially this afternoon with highs in the mid 80s. A 50% chance for showers tonight with lows in the lower 70s. A 60% chance for more showers on Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s. Rain chances look good for the rest of the week. Highs for Thursday into the weekend will be around 90-92 with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s. Rex

Monday, July 27, 2009

Showers likely !

It appears that much of the week will be on the rainy side for our area and that's great news since we do need the rain ! Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across most the area by this afternoon. We may see a short break in the action this evening before more showers and storms develop after midnight. Showers and some thunderstorms are in the forecast each day through at least Saturday. Rex

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Forecast made for campers

We had scattered thunderstorms break out in the Pine Belt. Totals weren't very high here in the immidate viewing area, but some folks in Stone County experienced heavy rainfall. Also, our friends along the coast were hit pretty heavy as well.
In the forecast this week we have a unique setup for late-July. A boundary similar to a stationary front will camp out in Mississippi. With slight north-south movement through Friday, we will have a very healthy shot of rain here in the Pine Belt. Multiple shortwaves will drift along the stationary boundary to stir the rain. This setup will be good for the rainfall as well as holding the high temps in check.
In other topics, a High pressure system will begin to camp out in the Western Atlantic. Some models show the High (ridge) shifting over the Bahamas late in the week. What is the big deal? Well this ridge will keep any storm cluster from moving into the north atlantic, which will flow in the direction of the Gulf. Does this mean a better chance of tropical storms? No. But the driving mechanisms of the atmosphere will be able to drive any energy more westward in the Tropics. Please only take this information with a grain of salt because it's merely a "water cooler" conversation (Not serious but worthy of discussing).

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Wonderful Saturday With Lots to Discuss

First, I apologize for our problem with the online weather graphics. We will have the graphics working as soon as possible.

Humidity dropped to nearly 28% today, which was greatly reflected from the wonderful clear day. I hope you were able to enjoy the day because my forecast is leaning towards a few wet days ahead. A return of moisture throughout the next 24 hours will collide with a front moving into the pine belt late tomorrow night, but the main rain impact seems to work itself into Monday's forecast. Any rain on Sunday looks to be relatively late in the day, but my 30% is really due to the choice of Sunday or Monday. After Monday, I'm looking at another boundary drifiting into Central Mississippi on Tuesday afternoon. This boundary will linger around through Wednesday. Then a third front will drift into North Mississippi on Thursday, but my forecast reflects very slim chances since most activity will be to our North.

Stay tuned tomorrow and I will address the extended (long range) forecast. It looks interesting!

Friday, July 24, 2009

Dry and hot today but better chances for rain early next week.

For the most part skies will be sunny today with highs in the lower 90s. Mostly clear skies tonight with pleasent temps with lows again in the mid 60s. For Saturday highs again will be in the lower 90s with only a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. For Sunday expect a 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm with highs around 90 and lows around 70. For Monday through Thursday of next week look for increased chances for rain with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the lower 70s. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Warm to hot days and mild nights expected for the next few days !

Yet another rare cool front for July has moved through the Pine Belt. This will result in mostly dry conditions for today and Friday. Highs today will be around 90. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s ! Highs on Friday under mostly sunny skies will be around 93. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 60s. For Saturday and Sunday expect mostly sunny and hot afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to right around 70. We may see an isolated thunderstorm or shower over the weekend but chances are quite slim. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected for the Monday through Wednesday time frame with highs in the upper 80s to lows 90s and lows mainly in the lower 70s. Rex

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Afternoon weather update !

Due to the expected showers and cloud cover we may not go above the mid 80s this afternoon for max temps. Chance for rain is 60%. A slight chance for a shower tonight with lows in the upper 60s. Pretty much the earlier blog is on track for Thursday into Sunday. Rex

Good chance for showers and thunderstorms today !

A cool front will provide us with a 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms today. I expect the best chance will be in the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s. A slight chance for a shower tonight with lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain is 20%. For Thursday and Friday expect a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm with highs around 90 and lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain is 20% for both days. For Saturday expect highs in the low 90s with a slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely on Sunday with highs around 90. Chance of rain is 40%. Rex

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Showers in Forecast

Say goodbye to the record low days. After two consecutive mornings of record low temperatures we are now transitioning into a "July-like" forecast. This forecast ushers in more moisture from the Gulf via the transport by a Low Pressure System in Northern Arkansas. The Low will shift eastward going into Wednesday and swing through a couple lines of storms. Showers are likely tomorrow, but I'm intrigued to see some computer models moving the activity a little farther North out of our viewing area. I don't expect this to happen, but it has kept me from going higher than 60%. It will rain in the state tomorrow, but it's tough to see the specific line of movement.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Another record low in the 'Burg

A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT HATTIESBURG
THIS MORNING...JULY 20TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 DEGREES
SET IN 1962. THIS IS THE SECOND MORNING IN A ROW OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT HATTIESBURG.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Sunday's Pine Belt Weather Discussion

Wonderful dewpoint temperature in the 50s today made it feel much drier and comfortable. Some folks even felt like it was the start of college football season weather, but, even though it's not football season, we will cherish the drier weather days here in mid-July. After an above normal June, we are experiencing a below normal July. Over the last 2 weeks we have average slightly below normal for this time of year.
Our dry weather will continue into tomorrow morning with overnight lows dipping into the upper 50's for some in South Mississippi. Tomorrow afternoon I'll be watching for the atmosphere to slowly moisten, and some models are producing some light showers as well for tomorrow. My wording in the forecast will be "showers unlikely tomorrow but becoming more likely by Wednesday."
What's happening in the tropics? Invest 97 that I talked about yesterday did strengthen overnight, but it is still labeled a tropical wave. Even though the system has become a little more impressive in the last 24 hours, most tropical forecast models do not show any low pressure system within the next 5 days. I realize the computer models can change their forecast, but I'm still leaning on a very low chance Invest 97 turns into a tropical storm before midweek.
email: tcade@wdam.com
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/wdamtannercade

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Record Highs Now Record Lows

We started the month continually setting new record high temperatures, and now we will be flirting with setting record low temperatures. How can this be? Well we just saw an unseasonable Cold Front swing through the Pine Belt this morning, and now dewpoints are nearly 10 degrees lower than normal. Drier air and lower temps stages beautiful weather, and this might be declared the best weekend to be outside in July.
Tropics are moving a little with some tropical waves worthy of mentioning. Two waves are currently near the Lesser Antilles, but their westward track will take them into an area of high shear. Even though the shear will decrease (become more prone for tropical development) in the next few days, I still expect the tropical waves to still be disorganized for the next few days. We'll be keeping an eye on these developments through next week.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Weather update !

Showers and a few thunderstorms are now expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon and early evening. No severe weather is expected at this time.

Cooler temps on the way !

We have a 60% chance for showers today. A rather strong and rather rare July cold front-at least by Mississippi standards-will sweep through tonight resulting in cooler than normal weather for the weekend into early next week. Highs today will be in the upper 80s and lows tonight will be in the upper 60s. The main thrust of the cool air will be evident Saturday and Sunday nights as well will see temps in the 60 degree range! High temps Saturday into Monday will remain in the upper 80s. More typical July weather will return by by early next week as highs will again return to the lows 90s. Have a great weekend ! Rex

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Much needed rain on the way-and cooler temps !

A strong July cold front is forecast to move through our area early this weekend ! More on that in a moment. Today expect a 50% chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and storms. Highs in the mid 90s. Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower 70s. By Friday, the front will approach providing us with a 70% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 90s. The front is forecast to pass early Saturday morning and I think the rain will end.
Highs on Saturday in the upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low 60s!!! Dry on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s and lows again in the low 60s ! A very respected weather forecaster is predicting a cold winter for the deep south this year. Also the storm track will be south of us! Does that mean we have a shot at some snow ? Time will tell ! Stay tuned ! Rex

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Quick weather update !

Our rain chances for this afternoon have been lowered to 30% at best. We may see one or two develop but our best chances will still come later in the week.

Cold front in July ?

We have a chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms today with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain is 40% at best. Partly cloudy and humid tonight with lows in the mid 70s. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday with highs again in the mid 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely on Friday as a rare July cold front pushes south into our neck of the woods ! Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 80s with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. After ther front pushes through, expect drier and cooler weather! Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 80s and lows in the 60s with little to no rain ! Wow ! The Deep South may be in for a cold winter! I will have more on that later in the week ! Rex

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Looking for more rain as second front approaches

The past few days have offered up some decent showers for the Pine Belt, but we need more of the wet stuff. As a second front slowly approaches the Pine Belt on Thursday, we will have a pretty good shot at rain between Thursday and Saturday. At this point I think Friday will be our best bet.

Also, this front will likely push all the way through the Pine Belt, and there should be some cooler air on the other side. As a result, I'm calling for a high of 87 degrees Sunday.

-Nick

Good chance for showers and storms again today !

We have a 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast again today. Let's hope it works out because we need the rain ! The expected showers should keep our high temp around the 90 degree range today. Most showers will end early tonight with lows around 72 .Only isolated showers are forecast for Wednesday with highs in the mid 90s. A better chance for showers and thunderstorm will return for Thursday and Friday. Interesting news in the forecast for the weekend! It is possible that an rare summer cool front may push through ! If it occurs as forecast we will have highs only in the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 60s ! Wow ! We will see what happens ! Rex

Monday, July 13, 2009

Hot, Humid, with a Chance of Rain... Yes Rain!

It looks as if we'll have a continuing shot at showers over the next few days but it will come at a price. All the moisture and humidity that will help with our rain chances will also result in some very high heat indices. Many afternoons this week will probably feel as if its over 100 degrees, but hopefully we'll see some relief in the way of afternoon storms. A boundary will be nearby for the next few days and the rain chances will be around 50%. Over the weekend I expect another cold front to push all the way through the Pine Belt giving us a good shot at some weekend storms.

-Nick

Afternoon forecast updated !

We have increased our shower and thunderstorm chances to 50% this afternoon as a system drops south through our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon. Rex

Better rain chances this week !

Our rain chances will be on the increase expecially for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms on those days at 50%. For today isolated showers and storms are expected with highs in the mid 90s. For tonight, a few isoloated showers are possible mainly early tonight, with lows in the lower 70s. Very hot and humid on Tuesday with highs in the upper 90s with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Hopefully we will get that much needed rain late this week ! Rex

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Scattered showers Sunday !

Expect skies to become mostly clear tonight with lows in the lower 70s. We have a 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday with highs in the lower 90s. Drier and hotter weather is on tap for Monday and Tuesday withs highs in the upper 90s likely. For Wednesday through Saturday expect afternoon showers chances to slowly increase with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. The tropics remain very quiet ! Have a great weekend ! Rex

Friday, July 10, 2009

Hot weather will continue !

Hot weather will continue into the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the lower 70s. For Saturday and Sunday expect on a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm with highs both days in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Not much change expected for the beginning of next week either. Rex

Transitioning into El Nino

Temps in our 7Day will hover around the mid-90's which is a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Rain chances still seem slim going into next week with a strong ridge maintaining stable conditions for the SW U.S. including here in South Mississippi.

Discussion have progressed in the last few weeks about our weather pattern transitioning into an El Nino pattern, but what would this mean for us here in the Pine Belt? Well check out my blog I wrote at the end of June...
"Global trends like El Nino and La Nina are important oscillations to follow for long-term forecasting, and the Pacific water temperature is a major variable in determining these phases. For nearly the whole past year we have been in a neutral phase, but the last few months have showed us a trend. The El Nino Southern Oscillation neutral phase is transition into an El Nino phase in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Since May 2009 the sea surface temperature anomalies have increased across the equatorial Pacific. Increasing anomalies refers to warming ocean water. What would an El Nino pattern mean for us? The effects of El Nino during June-August include an increase in tropical activity in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. The transition into an El Nino trend may be an added reason why the long-term tropical forecast seems relatively quiet in the Gulf, but we are technically still in a "neutral" phase until El Nino anomalies have been maintained for atleast 3 months. All in all, it's another two cents to put into the tropical outlook."
Want to talk more about this? Feel free to email me at tcade@wdam.com

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Sunny and hot for today !

Sunny skies and hot weather is forecast for today with highs in the mid 90s. Clear and mild tonight with lows in the upper 60s. For Friday more sunny and hot weather is expected with highs again in the mid 90s. For Saturday through next Wednesday highs each day will range from the low to mid 90s and lows each night will be in the low to mid 70s. There will be a slight chance for an afternoon shower are thunderstorm each day as well-typical summer time weather for the Pine Belt ! Rex

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Dry and milder tonight !

We have a 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm today before much drier and milder air moves in for tonight. Todays highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90. Tonight expect clear skies and lows in the upper 60s ! Sunny and hot weather is on tap for Thursday and Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows around 70. For Saturday into next early next week expect typical July weather with highs each day in the mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s with a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day. Rex

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

More showers expected today !

We have a 60% chance of showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for today with highs in the upper 80s. Becoming partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower 70s. A slight chance for a thunderstorm on Wednesday and warmer with highs in the lower 90s. Partly cloudy and hot weather is forecast for Thursday through the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Rex

Monday, July 6, 2009

Heat Wave Over ?

Finally it looks like we are in for a more typical summer time weather pattern. Today we will see the best chance for showers and thunderstorms occuring mainly this afternoon. As with a typical summer time weather pattern showers will end after sunset for the most part as we loose the heating of the day. Tuesday through Sunday expect a chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms with highs in the lows 90s and lows in the low 70s. Rex

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Same Story but Location Change

The same story is developing in my forecast tonight. I'm still planning on rain impacting the Pine Belt area through Monday evening, but some things have changed in my wording for this forecast. It looks like the main area of "Vertical Lift" (needed for rain) will be located within Central Mississippi and Northern Portion of the Pine Belt rather than the whole extent of South Mississippi. This appears to be the main impact area. Although outlying areas of everyone south of hwy 98 can still see rain, but the main area of interest seems to be north of hwy 98. What is the timing on this? The front will push through very late tonight, and my window looks like just before sunrise into midday. Currently, this evening, the discussed front is moving slower than expected, but the system is progressing eastward. For more information please follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/wdamtannercade or email tcade@wdam.com

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Heat Wave, No More

Today was the most active day of thunderstorms the Pine Belt has experienced in at least a month. Large hail and wind damage was reported near Camp Shelby and the Sunrise Community in Forrest County. However, many of us in the viewing area still haven't recorded any amount of rain since June 4th, but our forecast concludes most everyone should see rain within the next 48 hours. The jet stream settling down in central Mississippi, vertical lifting mechanisms, and moisture, will all aid in a line of thunderstorms beginning tomorrow evening. A front will move through late Sunday night and deliver thunderstorms turning into showers into Monday morning. This is great news for many of us since we are in an abornal dry spell, but also the heat wave should diminish along with our dry spell. Temps should fall into the upper 80's on Monday and stay near the lower 90's all week.

Friday, July 3, 2009

Happy Fourth of July!!!

As the old saying goes, it's going to be as hot as a firecracker today through Sunday! Mostly sunny skies and highs of near 100 are expected for today through the weekend. Lows will remain in the 70s. By Monday we see a slight chance for showers , mainly the afternoon type and those shower chances should last into Thursday. Highs through that time period will be in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 70s. Have a great 4th ! and be safe ! Rex

Thursday, July 2, 2009

104 Degrees...Ouch!

Another new record set at Hattiesburg's Bobby L. Chain Airport. The recorded 104 degrees today makes the tenth day out of the last 13 where the airport has been matched or exceeded the triple digit mark. This definitely will be a summer heat wave to remember. Our forecast shows us a very warm 100 degree 4th of July weekend, but a shortwave forming in the middle mississippi river valley will help drop the daytime high next week. The system will also allow us to find scattered showers breakout across the Pine Belt. Obviously rainfall is becoming a necessity, but I hope we can all be careful shooting fireworks with multiple burn bans in the area.

Hot weather to continue !

We have less than a 10% chance for seeing a shower today so the area should remain mostly dry and hot. Highs today and Friday will be in the upper 90s and lows in the lower 70s. For the Fourth of July expect it to be as hot as a firecracker with highs topping our around 100. Lows will remain in the lower to mid 70s. Temps in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue into the next week. Rex

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

More of the same !

Mostly sunny and hot weather is forecast today and Thursday with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Partly cloudy and hot on Friday with highs also in the upper 90s. For the Fourth of July weekend expect only a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm with highs remaining in the upper 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Rex