Well Wednesday has started on a cloudy note with temps near 60, and scattered storms are already moving into the region from the more unstable air mass in Louisiana. Heavy rain is falling just northeast of Baton Rouge and east of McComb late this morning. I expect scattered storms throughout the day in South Mississippi with more intensity plausible within storms this evening.
Highest instability is over in Arkansas and Louisiana at this time, but Mississippi will become progressively unstable into the afternoon and evening. A strong upper level jet from the Pacific will also move in and cause more upper lift in storm development. The upper level jet is typical for El Nino weather patterns.
What is the biggest concern? The biggest concern will be damaging winds associated with unstable air mass and upper level dynamics this evening. Severe hail thresholds could be met with the towering cumulonimbus clouds. An isoalted tornado is also plausible for tonight.
Rain totals? North Mississippi will accumulate the most rain of 2"-4" and South Mississippi should find totals between 1" and 2".
Timing? Scattered storms will be around all day and lasting through midnight.
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