So what are my thoughts now and what has changed in the last 24 hours for this forecast?
The biggest change I have noticed in the last 24 hours is the computer models are trending slightly less in precipitation for Mississippi. National Weather Service also notices this by removing their winter weather watch and only issuing a winter weather advisory for our region. But I don't remember ever saying this was going to be a major snow event anyway. In fact, most of our talks have discussed only light snow, and we are continuing to keep that terminology for tonight's forecast.
After this morning it's nearly pointless to continue looking at the models because our attention is drawn to "nowcasting." Today we will simply be looking out the window to see how the atmosphere is evolving. And we start by noting Houston, TX, is already seeing their expected snowfall this morning with a temperature of 36 degrees. The temp should continue to drop over there for the remainder of the day with even more snow.
We should finally see the system move our way late tonight. I'm going with a window of 9pm to 6am ( 6am looks like a definite cut-off time for anything). In this time period many of us should expect snow flurries...near an inch of light snow for some. Flurries should be plenty wet and melt on contact with the roads.
Have a good day! And regardless of the precip talk...bundle up because it's going to be cold tonight.
Also, now we are beginning to focus more attention on next week's forecast. Rain likely next Monday and Tuesday...I'll have more on next week's forecast this weekend!