Sunday, December 20, 2009

Sunday's Weather Discussion

Another wonderful day here in the South. Our day started off with some light frost on vegetation and automobiles, but the sun slowly warmed the ground to produce a high over 51 here at WDAM. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer. I'm going with a high near 60, but we will slowly be warming in our high and low temperature leading upto the cold front passage on Thursday.

My big story line in the forecast will begin to focus in on the rain forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. National Weather Service is predicting near 2" for the Pine Belt, which is on track with the latest GFS computer model run.

Yesterday I talked about having widespread showers across the region due isentropic lift along the warm front on Wednesday, but latest model runs have shifted the core lifting zone (area needed for significant rainfall) to our Northwest. So I have lowered the expectations for widespread rain on Wednesday at this point. Although the biggest story will be going into Thursday. Models have slowed a couple hours on the frontal passage. Looks like the cold front will move through around Thursday afternoon at this point. Instability for severe weather will be on the low-end side, but we will keep our eyes open in the next few days for the severe potential.

Christmas forecast still looks like a high near 50. Sky cover is difficult to determine 5 days out....I'm going with mostly cloudy skies

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