Today was another great day! I really enjoyed capturing the alfa insurance skycam from our Grubbs Ford location in Columbia. Clear skies equals good stuff.
A trough is beginning to move across the county tonight. The West Coast will begin to experience the action of the trough, but we won't see anything till Wednesday and Thursday. This trough is different from the last few systems because the trough will "hook" North once it reaches Arkansas. The surface Low will be in the strengthening phase as the cold front sweeps through the Pine Belt, which is an important factor to notice. So the storm relative helicity (rotation in the atmosphere) variable will be at the moderate-to-high level on Thursday, but the instability (C.A.P.E) value will be low during this frontal passage. What does this mean for the severe weather potential? I'm not impressed at this point for a serious severe weather event on Thursday, but the scenario will require careful watching for any model differences.
When will the rain come? Scattered showers are expected on the fringe of the Pine Belt during the day Wednesday. Then the cold front passage midday Thursday will create heavy showers during the day. Everything looks to be clearing out on Christmas day!