Now since the rain has passed and we are looking at a chilly Christmas Day in the 40's, I thought I would take a glance into the next couple of weeks and discuss what is ahead of us in the weather world.
Of course we are nearing the end of a very busy month with plenty of rainfall. We are also in the middle of a strong El Nino pattern which typically delivers more rain to the southeast along a Jet pumping in from Mexico and the Western Gulf. We also received our first snow back on December 4 from a Gulf Low that formed near the Texas Coast. This is because the cold canadian air mass is routinely pushing down to the Dixie Line (near Tennessee and Arkansas) during El Nino patterns, and the Gulf Low pull in the cold air into the southeast. Since we are in a strong El Nino, our forecast also shows a continuation of Gulf Lows forming every 4 or 5 days, and models are already putting us close to a rain/snow line as the moisture meets the cold air mass.
Here is when current long range model forecast currently show moisture laden systems impacting our area:
*Anything past 7 days is difficult to be exact, but this gives us an idea of what models are wanting to show.
So the cold air is forecast to be present across the eastern U.S. due to 2 key oscillations going negative. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation both will continue to be in the negative going into the New Year. Negative values resemble the ability for cold air to get locked into the nation. So once a Low is formed along the Gulf, the cold air can filter down and produce some snow flurries. No, I'm not saying this is a definite thing for the Pine Belt, but the southeastern states look to be in the discussion for possible snow sightings in the next couple of weeks. Luckily, we've already had a good measure of snowfall!
Also, model consensus continues to predict the El Nino pattern will continue into the Spring, but weakening going into the Summer of 2010.
The same wet pattern will continue to exist into the New Year, and southeastern states have a better than average opportunity for more snowfall in the next few weeks.