Monday, March 30, 2009
Active Spring Weather Pattern
I'm looking at two systems this week. Tomorrow the SPC has put us under a slight risk of severe weather, which correlates with the expected instability levels within LA, MS, AL, and FL. An upper level trough is dropping down off the eastern Rockies and swinging through the Central Plains, and we are also getting a secondary 100kt upper level jet along the Gulf Coast. These two factors combined will stir our rain and thunderstorms throughout the pine belt. Overall the convective available potential energy and amount of turning in the atmosphere is less than we saw last week, but the values are still worth noting and watching. One factor many people are discussing is the impact of convection building along the gulf coast, and this development will cut-off the moisture inflow for us to see healthy storm activity. If we do see any severe weather the timing looks to be at about midday and into the evening. We'll continue to watch tomorrow's setup. The 2nd system will roll through on Thursday. Thursday looks even more impressive than Tuesday with CAPE values above 3,000 j/kg (high value) just south of Meridian (around Wayne County), but Helicity (or helical flow/turning flow) looks low to moderate in value. Rain totals could turn out less on Thursday. That's the wrap on these two systems. We will always be around to keep you aware of the severe weather. I'd love to hear your feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thanks for reading!