Sunday, August 3, 2008

8/03 Tropical Storm Edouard

Within an hour, the tropical depression in the Gulf turned into Tropical Storm Edouard, our 5th named Atlantic storm this year.

To me, this is a very interesting development since it's initial growth into a tropical low. Edouard essentially is from the leftover energy from the frontal system this past Thursday/Friday. Although now it is equally as interesting how Edouard has happened to form off the coast of MS/AL yet will not move into our viewing area. The high pressure system over the Southern Plains is the main controller of our forecast and the forecast for Edouard.

All models are pointing in the same direction. Galveston, Texas, seems to be the central location for landfall early Tuesday morning, but this position could waverer a bit North and South depending upon the exact movement of the Ridge over the ARLATX. Also, Edouard will be encountering a little shear throughout the night, which will cut off some of the convective growth. I am also agreeing with the models by forecasting Edouard to strengthen in the next 48 hours before landfall, and I would not be surprised to see this system turn into a Cat 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds. In the rudiments of meteorology, a strengthening tropical system as it makes landfall is more dangerous than a dying system during landfall. The continued convective growth of a tropical storm creates the mixing down of higher winds aloft to the surface, and we similarly saw this with Hurricane Dolly a couple weeks ago.

Last note, our forecast has also changed a bit after the development of last night's storms and tropical storm Edouard. The Heat Advisories are mainly for our friends in Northern Mississippi as our temps will be leveled out with influence from the Gulf.

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